The Big hurt

Big Picture

In November 1994, Pakistan batted out day five of the third Test in Lahore to complete a 1-0 series victory over Australia. They did so despite surrendering first-innings leads in all three Tests, and despite the dual withdrawals of Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis from the team for the deciding match. Their deliverer was the captain Saleem Malik, who mastered the previously rampant Shane Warne over the course of 557 series runs at 92.83. It appeared to have been a meeting between two teams set to dominate the next decade or more. But this only turned out to be true for Australia - Mark Taylor's team would beat the West Indies the following year and establish a thirteen-year global supremacy. Their opponents would do something like the opposite.

Twenty years and nine series later, Pakistan have weathered more storms than it is possible to mention here. Australia have commonly trampled all over them in the first Test of a series and then carried on to win. Not once in the intervening years have the sub-continental team had something to hang onto as the encounter developed - until now.

The victory in Dubai was not simply a rousing result, for it was among the most complete Test match performances seen anywhere in recent times. After winning a key toss, Misbah-ul-Haq's team soaked up the pressure applied by Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle before attacking Nathan Lyon and milking the more limited offerings of Steve O'Keefe. Rahat Ali, Imran Khan, Zulfiqur Babar and Yasir Shah then proceeded to tie Australia's batsmen in familiar knots. Those knots had been glimpsed during the tour match, and it will take a major change of mindset to prevent them from returning in Abu Dhabi.

Nonetheless, the biggest question this week will be how much Pakistan truly believe they can beat Australia, and how much Michael Clarke's team are prepared to accept the prospect of being defeated by an opponent they have become so accustomed to swatting aside, even after the baggy green XI was no longer a gathering of giants. Twenty years is a long time, but so too are five days.

Form guide

Pakistan WLLWL
Australia LWLWW

In the spotlight

As happens to many captains, consistent runs are growing increasingly difficult for Michael Clarke to attain. When he rebuked critics of his tour match form for noting that he made a brave century in Cape Town during Australia's previous Test match, they might have responded that he went five matches without reaching 50 before that. Clarke's usually nimble feet against spin were nowhere to be seen in Dubai, and he has taken up the Rahul Dravid gambit of batting without pads against Lyon and O'Keefe to try to get them moving in Abu Dhabi.

There is not much Shane Warne and Steve Waugh agree on, but they have been rare unison when discussing the quality of Pakistan's wrist spin debutant Yasir Shah. Spin, accuracy, subtle variation were all evident in his seven-wicket display, and on an Abu Dhabi surface that may not turn as much as Dubai, the extra revolutions imparted by Yasir's wrist may give him a useful edge over the finger twirlers. Australia, though, will be wiser this time, leaving Pakistan to discover how their new find can cope with greater scrutiny and expectation this time around.

Teams news

Mohammad Hafeez will be under pressure from Taufeeq Umar for his spot in Pakistan's XI after being one of few underwhelming performers in Dubai.

Pakistan (possible): 1. Ahmed Shehzad, 2. Mohammad Hafeez, 3. Azhar Ali, 4. Younis Khan, 5. Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 6. Asad Shafiq, 7. Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8. Zulfiqar Babar, 9. Imran Khan, 10. Yasir Shah, 11. Rahat Ali

Australia's only likely adjustment would be to include Ben Hilfenhaus or Mitchell Starc at the expense of Steve O'Keefe, but an unchanged XI appears the favoured scenario.

Australia (probable): 1 Chris Rogers, 2 David Warner, 3 Alex Doolan, 4 Michael Clarke (capt), 5 Steve Smith, 6 Mitchell Marsh, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 Mitchell Johnson, 9 Peter Siddle, 10 Steve O'Keefe, 11 Nathan Lyon

Pitch and conditions

Abu Dhabi's pitch appears dry as expected, and though it may not spin quite so much as Dubai's, variable bounce may come into play as the match wears on.

Stats and trivia

• Pakistan's last series win over Australia took place in 1994, when a one-wicket victory in Karachi was followed by draws in Rawalpindi and Lahore
• Sarfraz Ahmed - who already has the most runs as wicketkeeper in 2014 - needs 84 runs to go past Kamran Akmal as the Pakistan wicketkeeper with most Test runs in a calendar year. He has hit 523 runs this year at an average of 65.37
• For a Pakistan victory by a margin of more than one match, one must go back as far as a 3-0 sweep of Kim Hughes' tourists in 1982
  Quotes
  "If you're trying to sell a newspaper, it's an absolute disaster and you'll mention India. If you're part of the Australian cricket team then you'll look at the last 12 months and how well we've played and accept that we've lost a game."
  Michael Clarke isn't losing too much sleep over the Dubai defeat